11th Malaysia Plan - Vision 2020 Final Lap, Seize The Opportunity

Highlights

• 11MP to be guided by the Malaysian National Development Strategy which stresses on optimal usage of limited resources with focus on high impact projects at low cost combined with efficient and rapid implementation.
• Realistic 6 multidimensional goals (real GDP 5-6%, labour productivity growth 3.7%, income per capita of US$15,690 by 2020, 19.7% increase in average monthly household income, higher compensation of employees at 40% of GDP and Wellbeing index growth of 1.7%).
• Growth driven by private sector and focus on knowledgeintensive and high-value added-centric.
• Also aim to improve government financial positions with an unchanged target of balanced budget in 2020. Implication to the market
• No major surprises in terms of projects but should inject positive vibes into the market which has been lacking in positive newsflow.
• Major sector beneficiaries are construction and education.
• Performance study of last three MPs shows no pre-MP rally. However, by end of the respective years, the KLCI recorded positive returns of 17.7%, 18.3% and 20.9% post tabling of 10MP, 9Mp and 8MP.
• Construction index (KLCON) outperformed the KLCI by 3.1%, 17.4% and 6.4% during the same period.

Strategy

• KLCI P/E valuations may not be attractive at slightly below historical mean of 15.5x. However, back in 2010, KLCI traded as high as 1SD above mean post tabling of 10MP.
• Moreover, the month of May is historically a good month to accumulate on dip as the KLCI almost always end the year higher than the low in May (15 out of last 20 years or 75%) other than exceptional years like 97 and 08. Excluding the crisis years, the above positive rate goes up to 83%.
• With KLCI already corrected from recent high, ample liquidity, lower foreign ownership (cumulative net inflow halved from RM49.2bn peak to RM24.2bn), opportunity during month of May and the tabling of 11MP, we believe it is opportune time to seize the 1-in-5-year opportunity to position for the year end whereby we have an unchanged target of 1,880 (based on historical average P/E of 15.5x 2016 earnings).
• For the 11MP thematic play, we prefer UEM Edgenta, IJM, Mitrajaya, Sasbadi and Lafarge.
• The first four stocks are also among our overall top picks for the market.

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 22 May 2015

4利好加持 巴迪尼长期展望正面

（吉隆坡20日讯）巴迪尼控股（PADINI，7052，主板消费股）週二公佈的业绩普遍上符合分析员的预测，主要是华人农历新年和新店开张带动公司的销售量。分析员表示，儘管今年4月1日起消费税正式开跑，將对市场消费情绪带来衝击，不过在4大利好因素加持下，该公司的长期展望依然正面。

週三巴迪尼控股股价全天上扬3仙或2.22%，闭市报1.38令吉，成交量为567万2900股。

巴迪尼控股2015財政年第3季（截至3月31日止）净利按年升25.95%，至2659万令吉；营业额亦涨29.59%，至2亿8362万令吉。

然而，首9个月净利则按年下滑19.68%，至6204万令吉；营业额却按年上扬12.78%，至7亿5596万令吉。

大马研究分析员表示，巴迪尼控股2015財政年首9个月净利6200万令吉，占该分析员全年净利预测7100万令吉的87%，同时也占市场全年预测的74%。

「我们认为，有关业绩符合预期，因为预计其2015財政年末季（今年4月至6月）净利將会放缓，主要是季节性因素和消费税实施后影响整体消费情绪。」

分析员补充说，该公司首9个月营业额按年成长13%，归功于农历新年的销量和新店开张，其旗下的Brands Outlet和Padini Brands%，分別贡献33%和32%的营业额。

至于毛盈利赚幅则按年萎缩4%，至43%，主要是公司大量打折商品，以刺激销售，以及公司自行吸纳消费税所致。

与此同时，肯纳格研究分析员也认同地说，虽然巴迪尼控股今年首9个月的净利达6200万令吉，符合预期，但是该公司积极的促销活动，导致净利按年减少20%。

末季业绩放缓

至于首9个月营业额涨13%，则归功于新店开张。不过，实施消费税后，分析员预计该公司末季的业绩表现料放缓。

大马研究分析员称，谨慎看待零售开销在消费税开跑后，接下来2个季度的表现；不过，他並没有对此过度担忧，因为巴迪尼控股良好的营运模式，预料可从经济趋稳的局势中受惠。

「隨著预期国內消费情绪將逐步改善，零售的销售表现预料可在今年末季回温。」

该分析员认为，巴迪尼控股拥有4大利好因素，即：一、强而有力的品牌效应；二、Brands Outlet强劲成长；三、庞大的经销网络；四、持续改善的產品组合。鉴于这4大因素，他对巴迪尼控股的长期展望感到正面。

此外，肯纳格研究分析员表示，基于巴迪尼控股今年將分別有6家全新的Brands Outlet和Padini Concept Store开张，因此短期內该公司的成本%，將呈上升趋势。

儘管如此，该分析员相信，所有利空消息已反映在其股价上，因此他维持该公司的盈利预测和投资评级。

另一方面，配合业绩出炉，巴迪尼控股宣佈派发每股2.5仙的第4次中期单层股息，符合分析员预期。

大马研究分析员表示，该公司的周息率处在具吸引力的7.4%水平，料可支撑该股的股价走势。

Source: http://www.orientaldaily.com.my/business/cj47608

What the latest Padini results (3Q15) says? - felicity

Wednesday, May 20, 2015 

 

While Padini halted its continuous drop in earnings, registering RM26.6 million net profit for 3Q15 against RM21.1 million from its previous corresponding period, I do not take that as a major note. It is good to see that dividend is maintain and profitability are consistent though. But there are some new findings to note.

We know that Padini has more individual outlets and is less reliance on consignment sales. Collection  hence is not a problem. The sales are mainly cash sales. By having its own outlets and franchisees outlets, it is able to control where and how it does its sales promotions. The challenge here for Padini is to bring traffic or customers that buy. From its growth in sales through its performance review, that seems to be not much of a problem. Over the last few years, the profit margin it seems is the problem due to higher costs and price competition.

Does it need to throw huge discounts to attract customers, that's the question and more importantly, can it continue to sell with so much impending competition?

However - Immediate challenge for Padini is reducing its stocks as highlighted in its review for 2Q15 (previous quarter for ending 31 December 2014).

Performance review for 2Q2015 (ending 31 Dec 2014)

As mentioned above, reducing its stocks has been a priority due to the impending GST starting 1 April 2015. This is due to from the old stocks, it cannot claim input tax (as there was no input tax paid which can be claimed) - I presume. Only for purchases from 1 April 2015 onward would it be able to claim back input tax from its sales. This to me is a test, which means that the company has to make do with older stocks i.e. in clearing those while increasing sales and not suffering loss of margins. That was the task for the last few months prior to GST.

And I would say, it manages to show that it is able to do that. Just look at the drop in inventory and how it manages to increase its cash balances (highlighted below in red).

GST is a situation where it needs to test out its ability to execute and it delivers as I see it. Long story short, it is able to execute what it wanted to do - reduce stocks, increase sales and maintain margins while the purchases will come later.

Original Source: http://www.intellecpoint.com/2015/05/what-latest-padini-results-3q15-says.html

[转贴] Padini 2015 3Q Report - chengyk

Thursday, May 21, 2015 

 

Year-on-year, revenues for the quarter under review have risen by about 29.6% (RM64.8million). This was mainly due to the longer Chinese New Year shopping season available this year. Further to that, there was an additional 7 Brand Outlet Stores and 6 Padini Concept Stores that were opened after the end of the previous year’s corresponding quarter contributing to the revenues of the quarter under review.

虽然说是新年的贡献，但以这样的环境还有这样的业绩，算是不错了。

下一季应该能看到 GST 的影响，估计不会比这个季好看。

~乡下佬~
20.05.2015

http://chengyk.blogspot.com/2015/05/padini-2015-3q-report.html

PADINI – Fundamental Analysis (20 May 2015) - By L.C.Chong

PADINI Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1PwFqUf

Notes – http://tinyurl.com/lyevtd9

My View:-

• Valuation:
  • Absolute EY%:
    • Trailing:
      • FY14 (EPS: 0.138) – Fair value 1.82 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
      • R4Q (EPS: 0.115) – Fair value 1.52 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
    • Forward:
      • FY15 (EPS: 0.118) – Fair value 1.56 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
      • FY16 (EPS: 0.142) – Fair value 1.88 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
    • EPS applied to reach the current stock price (1.35): 0.102
• Assuming PADINI dividend payout is consistent, I think dividend yield is around 9%.
• In overall, PADINI valuation is slightly attractive.
• FY15Q3 earnings rose +26.0%yoy and +64.1%qoq to RM26.6m
  • Higher operating costs and effective tax rate caused margin erosion to maintain its market share.
• In coming quarters, I think GST and competition from new entrants to the market will be the main risk for PADINI. I think these issues are short term. If PADINI is able to go through this, PADINI future will be quite promising.
• I will continue to hold, and accumulate PADINI if possible.

Latest Financial – Q3 2015 Financial Report (19 May 2015)http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/4741437

At the time of writing, I owned shares of PADINI.

Original Source: https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2015/05/20/padini-fundamental-analysis-20-may-2015/

消費稅抑制未來兩季買氣‧巴迪尼全年淨利看跌

（吉隆坡20日訊）巴迪尼控股（PADINI，7052,主板消費品組）第三季淨利按年走揚26%至2千660萬令吉，分析員預期消費稅（GST）效應抑制未來兩季買氣，2015財政年淨利料走低，2016財政年才回返成長正軌。

2016財政年料返成長正軌

大馬研究說，消費稅實施後，對未來兩季的零售消費保持謹慎，預料消費情緒於今年第四季改善；預測6月截止之2015財政年淨利料走低，2016財政年料才回揚。

“其長遠前景保持正面，主要有強勁品牌、品牌專店成長強勁、銷售網廣、產品組合持續改善。”

第四季料派息2.5仙

該行預測2015至2017財政年週息率料達7.4%，第四季會派息2.5仙，全年總派息達10.0仙，這有助於抵銷股價走低之衝擊。

該股週三閉市一度上漲仙至1令吉42仙，閉市漲3仙至1令吉38仙。

肯納格研究也說，所有負面因素皆已在當前股價反映，7%至8%的回酬不俗，此派息可持續；截至今年3月有淨現金1億6千400萬令吉。

即使股價下跌亦有派息緩衝，而且所有負面因素已在股價反映。

“今年開6間概念店和6個品牌專賣店，需時間回本，同時消費稅衝擊買氣，一旦逆風轉淡，公司業績可力爭上游。”

首9個月淨利按年挫20%至6千200萬令吉，MIDF研究說，其實際稅率增長3.6%，由27.3%增長至30.9%，連帶導致賺益降3.3%至8.2%。

肯納格說，其第三季淨利走揚26%，按季比淨利也增長64%，主要是賺益在無折價銷售中增長3%至4%。

艾畢斯研究則認為，這可能是農曆新年或消費稅前大採購所烘托，預期第四季（4月至6月）業績疲弱，主要是消費謹慎。

馬銀行研究說，4月後巴迪尼吸納GST而沒有起價，料賺益走低，對其短期盈利前景保持謹慎，惟財測不變。

（星洲日報／財經‧報道：張啟華）

Padini gains 3.70% on analyst upgrade

Published: 20 May 2015 9:54 AM 

Padini Holdings Bhd rose 3.7% in early trade today after AllianceDBS Research upgraded the stock to “Hold” at RM1.35 with a higher target price of RM1.38 (from RM1.20) and said that after disappointing earnings in the first two quarters, Padini’s 3QFYJune15 results improved substantially.

At 9.10am, Padini rose 5 sen to RM1.40 with 405,100 shares traded.

In a note today, AllianceDBS Research vice president for equity Cheah King Yoong said Padini reported stronger core earnings of RM27 million,  boosted by (1) higher revenue as consumers purchased ahead of the GST and new shops that opened during the period, and, (2) better product mix, which led to higher gross margins in 3QFY15 of 44%, compared with 41% in 2QFY15.




Cheah said this lifted 9MFY15 earnings to RM62 million, accounting for 86% and 76% of our and consensus’ full year estimates.

He said the group declared a 2.5 sen DPS for the quarter, bringing 9MFY15 DPS to 7.5 sen.

“Raised FY15F earnings by 5%. While we acknowledge that our FY15 earnings forecast would seem to be conservative in view of the stronger than expected pre-GST purchases and improved margins in 3QFY15, we remain cautious that 4QFY15 earnings (from April to June) could weaken considerably after the implementation of GST in April.

“We have thus raised our FY15F earnings slightly by 5% due to the stronger than expected 3Q results, but maintain FY16-17F earnings. Our FY15 net profit estimate is 6% below consensus.

“Raised target price to RM1.38, upgrade to Hold. Reflecting the earnings revisions, we have raised Padini’s target price to RM1.38, based on an unchanged PE of 12x. Upgrade to Hold,” said Cheah. – The Edge Markets, May 20, 2015.


Source: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/business/article/padini-gains-3.70-on-analyst-upgrade

（转载）PADINI绝地大反攻 Q3季报出炉

等待已久的padini终于出了最新一季的季报了，也就是我之前认真去考察那一段时日的季报（详情参考雪隆PADINI业务巡视记录），所以这一季的季报我可是信心满满，毕竟我是亲身经历过的嘛，而且我前一排也买入了一点他的股票，虽然没能把握到最低价格1.35，但是我还是很感恩，因为今天的业绩告诉我，我这个买入是非常值得的～。～

哦哦，先澄清一下，我是一名商人，所以这只股的分析是以参股做生意的角度出发，如果你是单纯博反弹或短炒股价牟利之类的基本上你可以忽略这篇文章了，因为看股价说故事的本事我是没有的，股价上就说公司很好，股价跌就说接下来的季报会很烂这些能力，就让给其他”高手“吧。。

好了，废话少说直接入今天的正题，padini季报分析。。

Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31 Mar 2015

PADINI HOLDINGS BERHAD

Financial Year End	30 Jun 2015
Quarter	3 Qtr
Quarterly report for the financial period ended	31 Mar 2015
The figures	have not been audited

Attachments PHB_FY15_Q3_Explanatory_Notes_to_Accounts.doc 58.7 kB PHB FY15 Q3_Interim Financial Statements 31 Mar 2015.xls 18.0 kB

• Default Currency
• Other Currency

Currency: Malaysian Ringgit (MYR)

SUMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL INFORMATION 31 Mar 2015

		INDIVIDUAL PERIOD		CUMULATIVE PERIOD
		CURRENT YEAR QUARTER	PRECEDING YEAR CORRESPONDING QUARTER	CURRENT YEAR TO DATE	PRECEDING YEAR CORRESPONDING PERIOD
		31 Mar 2015	31 Mar 2014	31 Mar 2015	31 Mar 2014
		$$'000	$$'000	$$'000	$$'000
1	Revenue	283,622	218,854	755,960	670,249
2	Profit/(loss) before tax	38,970	28,061	89,824	106,259
3	Profit/(loss) for the period	26,593	21,113	62,045	77,250
4	Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent	26,593	21,113	62,045	77,250
5	Basic earnings/(loss) per share (Subunit)	4.04	3.21	9.43	11.74
6	Proposed/Declared dividend per share (Subunit)	2.50	2.50	7.50	9.00
		AS AT END OF CURRENT QUARTER		AS AT PRECEDING FINANCIAL YEAR END
7	Net assets per share attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent ($$)	0.6130		0.5890

这个就是它最新一季的季报了，营业额对比去年同期大涨了29.5%，每股盈利则大涨了26%，从去年同期的3.21sen大涨到这一期的4.04sen，而且股息还是持续派发跟去年相同的2.5sen(特别股息1.5sen除外）。而现金比例则继续突破之前的高点，从去年同季的9700万或上一季的1亿9000万增长到最新一季的2亿2000万左右，而且相信接下来还有望增加，所以说管理层的清货换现金计划凑效了，不知道有没有特别股息=。=，不过拿来开更多分店增加收入我也是欢迎的~。~，不过接下来PADINI打算开启一家属于自己的销售网站，但是那个还在进行中并且还没开业，所以业绩不会那么快反映。

虽然这个季度的业绩美到暴，但是由于今年公司开始转型导致头两季业绩疲弱，所以即使来了一季很强的季报，还没能维持增长模式，3季季报共9.43sen，对比去年同期11.74sen，还是稍微走低。不过我对接下来的一个季度非常感信心，因为我可是继续老老实实的跟进各大店铺的情况嘛～。～

曾经看过有人说，管得他店铺的人流多寡，人多什么都是费要看业绩之类的发表，我只会一笑置之，毕竟我不是一个看着后面业绩往前走的人，而之前1月到3月的人流，发挥在这一季的季报，跟我预算的4分盈利蛮相符，只是营业额稍微比我预测的少，不过只要盈利达标，营业额稍微低也不造成问题了，反正不断创新高的营业额向来被弹得一文不值的，这次连他们说的每股盈利都给点东西看，不知道他们又会怎么鸡蛋挑骨头呢~。~或许又会说GST后人家不Shopping买衣服，所以下一季业绩会走低之类的理由了XD。。至于下一季如何我不是神，当然人家说什么我也不管，我只会继续用巡视业务来MONITOR接下来的业绩。。

讲讲下又离题了，这个离题内容就是“第一天”style嘛～。～，回到正题好了。。

几张下图都是5月头的实地跟进，拍摄地点是Mid valley，根据许多朋友的线报，5月头4日在雪隆各大旗航店的人流都是爆灯的，而我亲身到达现场查看才知道这个说法一点都不夸张。。

店铺外看到人头涌涌好像劫匪在打抢一样。。

多人到伸个懒腰都会害怕旁边叫非礼~。~

我当天3个不同时段去查看整个小时，被人团团围着的6个柜台，根据我观察，持续不断每分钟多一点就一笔生意，每笔交易介于50-500元左右，就算当他平均每人消费100元，一天下来还得了？我可是想买东西都要排了10多20分钟队的=。=

回到业绩，今年3季共9.43sen，去年4季共13.82sen，以这个比上一季还强的人流来看，最后一季我预算起码比这一季更好，那么预算4分++，而要超越去年全年业绩，就要起码能够做到4.4sen的业绩，说容易不容易，说难不难，但是我觉得下一季能够突破4.4sen的机会还是一半一半，万一达不到，以持平的业绩，配合管理层答应几年内每股起码10sen的年股息，我觉得是非常满意的，现在的我正好12万UNIT，意思每个季度会获得3000元股息，就是每个月1000元，够我去店铺搞搞震~。~。

不过，这里要做个良心提醒，免得大家被冲昏头脑。。
第4季盈利，管理层说明会是一个挑战性的季度，虽然他们会尽最大努力为我们创造价值，但是一切现在说也言之过早，因为这个季度只过了1个月又19天而已。。当然这些全部是以做生意的角度出发，业绩好不代表股价马上要暴涨，虽然长期下来股价往往会跟着业绩方向的。。

一点点个人功课。。

股票的合理价或买入价等都是纯粹个人功课，所以资料仅供参考，并不是买卖的指标，买卖前请自行评估风险，本内容并没有教导或怂恿买卖的建议，请别对号入座。

更多好股功课，尽在个股分析
有兴趣学习投资理财知识的朋友，可以点击这里了解，希望可以帮到你：）
对投资理财有兴趣的朋友，可以到第一天投资理财专区Like一下，那么下次有什么最新消息，你就能够知道了：）

旧功课

Padini(7052) Mar 2015(Last update)
当天价格：Rm1.35
投资建议：守着或慢慢买入（上调）
合理价:RM1.35+2.5sen dividend=Rm1.37
FY年尾合理价:RM1.44+5sen dividend=RM1.49
备注：从近2个月的巡视来衡量，下一季业绩走高几率高，但是今年全年应该无望超越，唯有守着多2季度，所以钱多的朋友已经可以开始累积了，预算2个季度能够得到约10%回酬。

新功课

Padini(7052) May 2015(Last update)
当天价格：Rm1.35
投资建议：买入（上调）
合理价:RM1.49+2.5sen dividend=Rm1.52
备注：下一季业绩走高几率高，由于经历了之前的4个季度烂臭季报，所以接下来会有起码4个季度成长的业绩，而且股息以现有价格来看也高达7.4%，绝对有很多安全防卫，而且鉴于很多人还是对这只股很看淡，所以正是累积机会，我会视本身财务状况逢低买进。
风险：现在大市危危忽，要随时留意大市风险。

Original source: http://windscopo.blogspot.com/2015/05/padini-q3.html

巴迪尼首季派息2.5仙

（吉隆坡19日訊）巴迪尼（PADINI，7052，主要板消費）截至3月底首季，淨利按年漲26%，從2111萬令吉攀升至2659萬令吉，每股派發2.5仙股息。

在較長農曆新年購物期的提振下，同期的營業額成長30%，達2億8362萬令吉。

不過，巴迪尼首9個月淨利下滑19.7%，至6205萬令吉；營業額增長12.8%至7億5596萬令吉。

該公司指出，基于消費稅對銷售和成本的影響，預計要取得盈利更具挑戰。

Source：http://www.chinapress.com.my/node/623098

合成工业净利增38%

（吉隆坡19日讯）较低原料成本和销量增加，带动合成工业（HUPSENG，5024，主板消费产品股）截至3月31日首季，净利按年增长38.41%。

今日，集团宣布首季净赚1322万9000令吉，或每股盈利1.65仙，胜于去年同期的955万8000令吉或1.19仙。

至于营业额则从6445万令吉，按年提高10.33%，至7110万6000令吉，归功于国内和出口市场对饼干的需求增加。

合成工业预计，今年将会充满挑战，且保持谨慎。

不过，会通过产品创新和多元化，扩大产品组合，扶持集团增长。

Source: http://www.nanyang.com/node/701814?tid=462